This makes the strategy for Ursulas Returns Sapphire/Steel Starter Deck is relatively simple: Play Heroes, win
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This mistaken belief is called the Gambler's Fallacy
Spore Frog to fog every turn, Seal of Primordium to keep wiping out artifacts and enchantments, Pernicious Deed to keep board wiping, Plaguecrafter to keep them sacrificing creatures or Planeswalkers its strong stuff when it gets going
However, they've fallen by the wayside as the format has expanded and strategies that offer even more value, like evoking the Modern Horizons 2 Elementals, have emerged
The creature thats most on the edge is the Grave-Shell Scarab, because it doesnt dredge for a lot, and its value as a creature is mostly that it can bounce back to your hand very cheaply or you can cycle it away for a mana